Growing up on Rapa Nui, Noah Paoa spent his summers camping by the shore, bodyboarding, and exploring the island鈥檚 landscape with his family. A pivotal moment occurred in 2010 when, at 15 years old, a massive earthquake in Chile triggered a tsunami warning for the island. Paoa watched the shoreline recede so far it seemed as if the ocean had never been there. This experience highlighted how closely life on an island is tied to the forces of the sea, eventually guiding him toward a historic academic milestone.

Graduating with the University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa in May, Paoa earned a landmark achievement as the first Rapa Nui person to go through the Rapa Nui school system and earn a doctoral degree. While he is careful to honor those who paved the way, Paoa鈥檚 degree in from the 东精影业 Mānoa (SOEST) is significant personally and for his community.

“Earning this degree is an honor for me, but it is also the reflection of all the work that Rapa Nui people have done so that Rapa Nui students would have the tools to pursue advanced studies,” Paoa said. “I see myself as a testament and example for future Rapa Nui students and perhaps for students of other small island communities.”

Assessing sea level rise threats

Chip Fletcher, professor and dean of SOEST, served as Paoa鈥檚 advisor for both his master鈥檚 and doctoral degrees. Fletcher said Paoa brought an extraordinary combination of determination, discipline and insight to his graduate work.

“Noah has an incredible work ethic and a rare intuition for coastal science,” Fletcher said. “He has the ability to see both the physical processes shaping island shorelines and the deeper cultural meaning of what is at stake. His research reflects years of hard work, careful thinking, and a deep commitment to serving Rapa Nui and other island communities.”

His doctoral research addresses the , such as ceremonial sites, ancestral landscapes and sacred places.

“Most climate research focuses on impacts to infrastructure and ecosystems, but I wanted to show that coastal cultural heritage is just as vulnerable, and that losing these sites would be more than an archaeological loss, it could result in disruption to cultural identity and continuity,” Paoa said.

Cultural pride and responsibility

Growing up with a Rapa Nui father and a German mother who dedicated part of her life to preserving the Rapa Nui language, Paoa grew up surrounded by both cultural pride and a recognition of the responsibility that comes with preserving language, knowledge and identity. He felt a frustration with the island’s extractive academic past, where outside researchers often benefited their own careers without providing tangible benefits to the local people.

“My research provides new modeling tools and regional datasets to support heritage preservation and climate adaptation planning, but I’ve tried to be clear that what I have produced is to inform management and planning, and that decisions must ultimately be guided by descendant communities and grounded in their own cultural protocols,” Paoa shared.

By pursuing earth sciences, beginning as an undergraduate student at the University of Oregon, Paoa found a way to link geological processes to issues that affect his home island.

“I hope this work inspires future generations of Rapa Nui to pursue scientific paths of their own, helping ensure that research on our island increasingly reflects our own voices, perspectives, and priorities,” said Paoa. “This degree isn’t only mine, it belongs to everyone who made the path possible, and my responsibility now is to carry what I’ve learned back home and put it to use for Rapa Nui.”

–By Marcie Grabowski

University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa researchers revealed that Waikīkī is facing a fundamental shift in flood hazards as sea levels rise—transitioning from a flooding that is driven primarily by rainfall to events increasingly dominated by tidal processes. The team identified two key pathways that will become more significant with sea-level rise, both of which will increase public exposure to sewage-contaminated waters. The study was published in .

“Our findings make clear that current flood management strategies for Waikīkī are incomplete,” said Kayla Yamamoto, climate modeling analyst at the in the 东精影业 Mānoa (SOEST). “Most planning focuses on surface damage and economic loss from storms, but largely ignores the contamination dimension. Our results show that contaminated flooding will become more frequent, more extensive, and eventually a daily occurrence rather than a storm-driven one. There are currently no effective management strategies in place to address this.”

Simulating future scenarios

The team used an open-source, physics-based flood model to simulate how multiple flood sources interact in Waikīkī. The team used an advanced flood model that, unlike previous models, integrates all sources of flooding—rain, tides, underground water behavior, and storm drains—to provide a single, complete view of the hazard

“What we found is that during extreme rainfall like we鈥檝e been experiencing, high tides and elevated water levels in the Ala Wai can combine to create conditions where contaminated water flows back into low-lying streets and sidewalks,” said Shellie Habel, study co-author and coastal geologist with the Coastal Research Collaborative and . “As sea level rises, it will take less extreme rainfall and tides to cause similar flooding in the future.”

The two key pathways they identified were: storm drain backflow, where polluted water from the Ala Wai Canal is forced into streets and public spaces in Waikīkī through drainage systems, and groundwater emergence, which brings sewage and other contaminants from aging and leaking sewage infrastructure to the surface.

The model simulations show that storm drain backflow is projected to occur even when there is no rainfall:

• 1 foot of sea-level rise: Storm drain backflow occurs during extreme tides, even without rain.
• 2 feet of sea-level rise: Storm drain backflow occurs during moderate daily tidal conditions.
• 4 feet of sea-level rise: Groundwater emergence (bringing sewage to the surface) begins to occur without rain.

Researchers compared their model simulations against tide gauges, canal water level sensors, groundwater monitoring wells, and photographs of street-level flooding during three real recent storm events, including a major 50-year Kona storm in December 2021, a moderate storm in April 2023, and a five-year Kona storm in May 2024.

Implications for Waikīkī, beyond

The Ala Wai Canal is one of the most polluted waterways in Hawaiʻi, containing sewage, heavy metals and pathogens such as Vibrio and MRSA. Exposure to these waters is a documented risk, with MRSA infections linked to Hawaiʻi waters already contributing to an estimated 200 deaths per year in the state. Because Waikīkī is a primary economic engine where residents and visitors are in constant contact with coastal waters, the anticipated flooding represents a growing public health and environmental crisis.

Many coastal cities around the world rely on estuarine waterways to drain their stormwater, and face the same combination of aging infrastructure, rising seas and contaminated waters.

“Our modeling framework is transferable, and we hope this study serves as a wake-up call to modernize stormwater and wastewater infrastructure, integrate contamination risk into coastal flood planning, and build early warning systems before these thresholds are crossed,” Yamamoto said.

By 2080 rising sea levels could cause seasonal waves to reach Ahu Tongariki, the iconic ceremonial platform that is part of the Rapa Nui National Park, a UNESCO world heritage site, according to a study published in the by a team of researchers from the University of Hawaiʻi
at Mānoa. This coastal flooding also threatens 51 cultural assets in the area, including Rapa Nui鈥檚 world-renowned moai statues.

“This research reveals a critical threat to the living culture and livelihood of Rapa Nui,” said Noah Paoa, lead author of the study and doctoral student in the in the 东精影业 Mānoa (SOEST). “For the community, these sites are an essential part of reaffirming identity and support the revitalization of traditions. Economically, they are the backbone of the island鈥檚 tourism industry. Failure to address this threat could ultimately endanger the island鈥檚 UNESCO world heritage site status.”

“As we work to understand the impacts of future sea level rise, we provide information that not only enables us to maintain safe, functional spaces and infrastructure, but also to support thriving communities,” said Chip Fletcher, co-author of the study and dean of SOEST. “That means we must document threats to culturally significant places and assets, and develop plans to preserve and protect what matters to communities.”

Computer simulations reveal vulnerabilities

Paoa and his team built a detailed digital twin of the study site and used advanced computer models to simulate the wave environment along the coastline. They then mapped the projected flooding caused by waves under future sea level rise scenarios. The flood extent was then overlaid on geospatial layers containing the location of cultural assets provided to the team by local partners, which allowed the researchers to identify the cultural assets that will be flooded.

“Unfortunately, from a scientific standpoint, the findings are not surprising,” said Paoa. “We know that sea level rise poses a direct threat to coastlines globally. The critical question was not if the site would be impacted, but how soon and how severely. Our work aimed to set potential timelines by which we could expect the impacts to happen. Finding that waves could reach Ahu Tongariki by 2080 provides the specific, urgent data needed to incentivize community discussion and planning for the future.”

The challenges facing Rapa Nui mirror those in other coastal areas of the world, including Hawaiʻi.

“While Hawaiʻi is invested in protecting coastal infrastructure from sea level rise, the irreplaceable coastal cultural heritage sites in Hawaiʻi and across the Pacific face the same urgent threat,” Paoa added. “Our research in Rapa Nui serves as a vital blueprint, demonstrating how we can use science to forecast risks to sacred places, such as coastal heiau and ancestral burial sites. By developing and applying these methods we hope we can help protect what is precious to the people of Hawaiʻi—provided such work is guided by, and deemed appropriate by, the Native Hawaiian community.”

Paoa is now using available data on coastal flooding to examine potential sea level rise impacts on cultural assets in Hawaiʻi. In the future, he and the research team, in collaboration with local partners in Rapa Nui, plan to further investigate potential impacts of sea level rise on the island鈥檚 coastal cultural assets and examine adaptation and mitigation efforts to safeguard the cultural heritage.

Existing sea level rise models for coastal cities often overlook the impacts of rainfall on infrastructure. Researchers at the University of Hawaiʻi at 惭腻苍辞补 predicted that by 2050, large rain events combined with sea level rise could cause flooding severe enough to disrupt transportation and contaminate stormwater inlets (grate or curb opening in Waik墨k墨鈥檚 streets that collects rainwater and directs it into the storm drainage system) across 70% of Waik墨k墨, due to interactions with water in the Ala Wai Canal. Their study was .

“We鈥檝e known that sea level rise will reduce the capacity for our drainage system to handle surface runoff, however, including rainfall events in our models showed that Waik墨k墨鈥檚 drainage infrastructure could fail sooner than we anticipated,” said Chloe Obara, lead author of the study who was a graduate student in the at the 东精影业 惭腻苍辞补 (SOEST) at the time of this research. “This study highlights the importance of incorporating rainfall and drainage infrastructure into coastal flood models to better understand how drivers of coastal flooding change over time.”

“The many factors affecting flooding should be included in risk assessments and resiliency planning for Waik墨k墨 and other coastal urban areas,” said Chip Fletcher, study co-author, director of the , and dean of SOEST. “Only with accurate information can we strategically mitigate urban flood risks in Honolulu鈥檚 tourism hub and other coastal areas.”

A similar example of this happened in early December 2021 when a storm system brought heavy rainfall to Oʻahu鈥檚 south shore, resulting in several feet of flooding along Kal膩kaua Avenue. The situation was worsened by a King Tide on the evening of December 6, which, combined with intense rainfall and onshore winds, overwhelmed the stormwater system and caused widespread drainage failure across Waik墨k墨.

Modeling Waik墨k墨鈥檚 storm drainage system

SOEST researchers developed a computer model of the Waik墨k墨 storm drainage system. They also installed 10 sensors throughout the storm drainage system—including at street-level inlets and canal or oceanside outfalls—which recorded water depth during two rain events to calibrate and validate their model. They simulated various scenarios of sea level rise and rainfall to determine where and under what conditions the storm drainage system will experience failure.

They determined rainfall is the dominant driver of drainage backflow until sea level rises two feet. As sea levels rise further, tidal flooding becomes more influential. Once four feet of sea-level rise is reached, the dominant driver of drainage backflow was determined to be high tidal levels.

“Management practices aimed at reducing rainfall runoff will help minimize compound flooding in the short-term, but management to reduce tidal backflow, such as pumped drainage, is also urgent, as storm drains are presently impacted by high sea levels and will continue to fail as sea level rises,” said Obara.

More than 75% of the storm drainage system in Waik墨k墨 is connected to the Ala Wai Canal, which is known to be heavily contaminated. Accounting for precipitation, the new study determined that 100% of the outfalls (end points where stormwater drains empty into the Ala Wai Canal or the ocean) of the Waik墨k墨 storm drainage system will fail by 2050, causing backflow of potentially contaminated water.

“This research contributes to the growing body of knowledge warning of present and near future climate challenges that will affect transportation, recreation and accessibility in Waik墨k墨,” said Obara. “Additionally, it raises awareness of the potential health hazard posed by the presence of drainage backflow containing highly contaminated water from the Ala Wai Canal.”

With this research, the team aims to inform and prepare planners and managers so they can be better positioned to take action in Honolulu and across the state.

—By Marcie Grabowski

University of Hawaiʻi at 惭腻苍辞补 students had the rare opportunity to learn from acclaimed environmental journalist Rosanna Xia during her visit in January. Xia, a Pulitzer Prize finalist and environmental reporter for the Los Angeles Times, shared her expertise on crafting compelling stories, connecting science and humanity and addressing critical climate change issues such as sea level rise.

Xia鈥檚 visit was organized by the university鈥檚 (ISR), where she met with PhD students researching sea level rise. The group toured sea level rise hotspots across the island, from the North Shore to Kahala, discussing sea level rise-related challenges and some of the strategies that are being utilized or considered for sea level rise response.

“I really enjoyed learning about her approach to journalism and storytelling about climate impacts and sea level rise in California, and how important it is to connect with and compassionately represent the stories of those who are experiencing the impacts of the climate crisis firsthand,” said Tanya Dreizin, PhD student in the .

Xia also led the workshop for journalism students “Crafting Compelling Stories: Lessons from a Pulitzer Prize Finalist.” Held in Associate Professor Youjeong Kim鈥檚 JOUR 330 class, the session focused on narrative-building techniques. Xia emphasized intention, ownership and responsibility in writing while guiding students through the process of integrating technical language with cinematic and sensory details.

“If writing is magic, Rosanna Xia is the magician who reveals her secrets behind the illusion. Not only did Xia expose the techniques but she also taught us how to apply them effectively,” said student Lauryn Johnson.

Xia concluded her visit with a public lecture, “Telling the Story of Sea Level Rise: Lessons from a Los Angeles Times Reporter.” As part of the , sponsored by SSFM International and co-hosted by ISR and the , the lecture drew an audience eager to hear Xia鈥檚 perspective on some of the most pressing environmental challenges of our time.

“Her talk was amazing and having the opportunity to spend the day with her was great鈥攖here’s so much more to learn from her and her knowledge of sea level rise cases in California,” said Renee Setter, PhD student in the .

A University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa-led project addressing for Waikīkī has received national recognition for its architectural innovation in pushing the boundaries of design. The project earned a design award from the Society of American Registered Architects (SARA) in New York City in October 2024.

“This national recognition from SARA underscores the widespread interest in using the latest science to inform the design of resilient buildings and communities that can change over time,” said Wendy Meguro, director of the 鈥檚 Environmental Research and Design Laboratory and the Hawaiʻi Sea Grant .

In Hawaiʻi, the team was among four nominees for the “Non-Profit or Government Climate Advocate” category at Climate 贬补飞补颈ʻ颈鈥檚 2024 Climate Leadership Awards, recognizing its efforts in decarbonization and resilience, including research that suggests climate change will require more cooling for Honolulu multifamily buildings.

“It is an honor to contribute to this research, where design innovation and interdisciplinary collaboration are recognized for driving meaningful solutions that advance climate resilience and sustainability for 贬补飞补颈ʻ颈鈥檚 future,” said Josephine Briones, UH climate adaptation specialist.

Infrastructure relocation, utility elevation, stormwater management

In November 2024, the team鈥檚 research on “” was published in Technology/Architecture + Design. The research outlines a process to combine scientific data with stakeholder input to visualize future flood hazards and foster adaptation planning.

“Successful flood-resilience efforts will combine leading practices in planning, climate science, and architecture while remaining rooted in local perspectives,” said Melanie Lander, community planning and design extension agent.

Key strategies explored in the project include relocating critical infrastructure, elevating utilities and walkways, and integrating stormwater management systems. These solutions aim to address challenges such as coastal flooding and groundwater inundation while providing scalable models for other communities.

“In their most recent report, the IPCC stated that 鈥� sea level rise will continue for centuries to millennia after 2100,” said Chip Fletcher, interim dean of the . “Without policies that plan for and mitigate the impacts of sea level rise, Hawaiʻi risks becoming unsafe, uninsurable, and unaffordable. It is critically important that this type of architecture design work continues in order to build a future in which Hawaiʻi communities can thrive.”

The project involves 东精影业 Mānoa鈥檚 School of Architecture, Hawaiʻi Sea Grant, and the Climate Resilience Collaborative.

The University of Hawaiʻi and the Department of the Navy (DoN) have signed a historic 10-year agreement to support the protection and management of natural and cultural resources on Navy and Marine Corps installations in Hawaiʻi. The agreement, which includes climate resilience support for bases and their surrounding areas, covers Joint Base Pearl Harbor-Hickam and Marine Corps Base Hawaiʻi on Oʻahu, and Pacific Missile Range Facility Barking Sands on Kauaʻi.

With increasing threats of extreme weather, defense programs throughout the U.S. are investing in collaborations that will allow them to better understand and address the ways severe weather and other hazards could impact military missions. The recently signed agreement enables the DoN to potentially fund 东精影业 to conduct $10 million in projects and support services annually to enhance the Navy and Marine Corps鈥� resilience against environmental hazards.

The agreement, known as a renewable Intergovernmental Support Agreement, or IGSA, is the first in Hawaiʻi between an academic institution, Commander, Navy Region Hawaiʻi (CNRH), and Marine Corps Installations Pacific (MCIPAC).

Support services provided by 东精影业 to CNRH and MCIPAC under this agreement may include, but are not limited to: biological assessment development, pest and predator control, marine debris removal, Integrated Natural Resource Management Plan implementation, curation services, Integrated Cultural Resource Management Plan implementation, engineering plans and implementation of Nature-based Solutions, floodplain analysis and mitigation, wildfire management and planning, hydrology/sea level rise mitigation, shoreline stabilization, Geographic Information System support, land/ocean/nearshore based surveys, and equipment and supply purchases.

The agreement, signed by Vassilis L. Syrmos and Assistant Secretary of the Navy for Energy, Installations and Environment Meredith Berger, provides the necessary framework for 东精影业 to use its collective knowledge and resources—scientists, laboratories, students, and outreach programs—to help the DoN balance the critical needs and requirements of the nation鈥檚 defense with its ongoing natural and cultural resource responsibilities in Hawaiʻi.

“I am pleased that 东精影业 was able to enter into this important agreement with the DoN,” said Syrmos. “Those who live and work in Hawaiʻi have a responsibility to be good stewards of the land and this partnership with the Navy signifies their willingness to fulfill their natural and cultural resource responsibilities by utilizing 东精影业鈥檚 knowledge and expertise in these areas.”

As a large part of its land-, sea-, space-grant mission, 东精影业 works to leverage federal partnerships like the IGSA to provide meaningful impacts for the state in environmental and cultural management.

“We are proud to partner with the University of Hawaiʻi and will benefit tremendously from its world-class research, specialized training programs, and the traditional ecological knowledge that 东精影业 incorporates into its educational program,” said Berger, who also serves as the DoN鈥檚 Chief Sustainability Officer. “As proud members of this community, we recognize our kuleana to protect Hawaiʻi鈥檚 environment and natural resources. When we care for this extraordinary place, we advance our diplomacy and reinforce our defense.”

Faculty in the University of Hawaiʻi at 惭腻苍辞补鈥檚 (DURP), conducted a summer course in Indonesia designed to enable students to appreciate challenges of urbanization, climate change and resilience in the Global South. This is the third year 东精影业 惭腻苍辞补 has offered a two-week immersive program in partnership with the urban and regional planning department at Diponegoro University (UNDIP) in Semarang.

“The courses offered faculty and students from both universities an opportunity to share their knowledge and creativity in responding to urban environmental problems,” said Priyam Das, an associate professor in DURP who co-designed the co-led joint course in Indonesia. “东精影业 惭腻苍辞补 students learned about resilience and informality—of settlements, services and solutions—by engaging with local communities in Semarang.”

Neighborhood visits

During the course, students attended lectures, conducted field research, and visited local neighborhoods facing unique and significant challenges. Studio-style group work enabled students to collaboratively analyze problems and propose potential solutions. They shared their findings and ideas at public presentations that concluded the program.

“Immersive and collaborative international learning experiences are essential to equip future professionals with the skills and sensitivity needed to tackle the urban challenges of a globalized world,” said Ashok Das, an associate professor in DURP, who conceived the collaborative program and led its design.

Critical learning

东精影业 惭腻苍辞补 graduate student Lahela Mattos took her first trip outside the U.S. to Indonesia. The k膩naka ʻ艒iwi (Native Hawaiian) scholar is part of the program at DURP. She aspires to become a professional planner and create spaces that allow Indigenous peoples to reclaim and flourish their cultural identities.

“Being able to see the effects of SLR [sea level rise] really helped me to understand what we will be facing as urban planners鈥e realized that planning interventions are limited for places that have already been inundated,” Mattos said.

These courses have been partly supported by the LuceSEA Transitions: Environment, Society and Change grant awarded to 东精影业 惭腻苍辞补鈥檚 and .

DURP is housed in the 东精影业 惭腻苍辞补 .

Nearly 100 undergraduate students from University of Hawaiʻi at 惭腻苍辞补 and Leeward Community College, as well as other universities across the nation, showcased their projects at the 2024 (SURE) Symposium on August 2. Hosted annually by the 东精影业 惭腻苍辞补 (UROP), the nine-week summer research and creative work program culminated with hybrid oral presentations and poster presentations at the Hawaiʻi Imin International Conference Center.

“东精影业 惭腻苍辞补 undergraduates conduct mature research and creative projects that tackle some of the most pressing issues we face in Hawaiʻi and beyond,” said UROP Program Coordinator Noah Perales-Estoesta. “The Symposium reflects the university鈥檚 commitment to advancing such research and creative work opportunities for students across all disciplines, and UROP is proud to play the role that we have in doing so.”

Sea level rise policy database

Kimberly Ortiz and Iokepa Frederick presented their project called “Sea Level Rise Policy Matrix,” which consisted of a report on a new inventory of sea level rise mitigation strategies, policies, laws, studies, tools, and documents that the state and counties of Hawaiʻi have produced in preparation for sea level rise. Their findings will be developed into a public-facing database that is user-friendly, publicly accessible, and can be used for future community education and input into sea level rise planning.

In addition to the inventory, Ortiz and Frederick reported on an initial analysis of specific actions and indicators that the state and counties have created to measure progress on sea level rise adaptation. Future research will continue with a larger gap analysis of what actions may be missing at a larger scale.

“The SURE Symposium was a wonderful experience and gave my research partner and I a platform to share what we have learned with others,” Ortiz said. “Not only educating ourselves but also having the opportunity to share our knowledge with others in terms of combating climate change, specifically sea level rise, we couldn’t have done it without SURE, UROP, ISR (东精影业 惭腻苍辞补 ) and Dr. Ketty Loeb.”

Loeb, a faculty member with ISR, served as the team鈥檚 mentor.

Marine ecology research

MeiLin Precourt presented two research projects at the SURE Symposium, focusing on marine invasive species in the Galápagos Islands, and global fish extinction risk. Precourt’s first study modeled habitat suitability for Caulerpa algae species in the Galápagos, examining their potential to spread beyond known ranges and threaten native biodiversity. Her second project used machine learning to predict extinction risk for ray-finned fish species not yet assessed by the International Union for Conservation of Nature. The model, which shows over 85% accuracy, identifies length, trophic level, and salinity, as key predictors of extinction risk.

“While presenting two projects at the SURE Symposium was a bit nerve-wracking, I enjoyed the opportunity to share my ongoing research,” Precourt said. “I also found it exciting and inspiring to watch the other presenters in my sessions showcase their work.”

Precourt was mentored by 东精影业 惭腻苍辞补 PhD candidate McLean Worsham and Professor Megan Porter (extinction risk for ray-finned fishes), and 东精影业 惭腻苍辞补 PhD candidate James Fumo (Caulerpa habitat suitability).

UROP funding support

Ortiz and Frederick鈥檚 research was funded through a UROP grant to their mentor. Precourt鈥檚 extinction-prediction project was funded with UROP , and her algae-habitat assessment was funded through an National Science Foundation International Research Experience for Students grant made to 东精影业 惭腻苍辞补 faculty.

Each year, UROP awards more than $500,000 in merit-based scholarships directly to students to support mentored undergraduate research and creative work projects and presentations. An additional $125,000 is awarded directly to mentors to support undergraduate research and creative work during the summer. The SURE Symposium is one of several regular on-campus presentation venues organized/co-organized by UROP. During the fall and spring semesters, UROP co-organizes the Undergraduate Showcase with the Honors Program.

Nearly $1 million was appropriated to the (Hawaiʻi Sea Grant) for the development of a beach and dune management plan for the North Shore of Oʻahu, specifically focusing on the area between Sunset Beach and Sharks Cove.

An important component of the project is community engagement and outreach so that the outcomes and pilot demonstration projects are aligned with community values, concerns and needs. In addition to developing the beach and dune management plan, pilot projects focusing on public infrastructure such as beach access stairs and decks will be discussed.

“This effort serves as a significant coastal management action plan reflecting the values and priorities of the North Shore community,” said Dolan Eversole, Hawaiʻi Sea Grant鈥檚 coastal management specialist and project lead. “In addition to the development of recommendations for site-specific beach and dune management practices, the plan will establish the scientific, environmental, and economic foundation for future evaluation of appropriate adaptation strategies for this critically important resource.”

Gov. Josh Green signed , which provided the funding in a ceremony held at the Hawaiʻi State Capitol on July 8. The ceremony included 16 bills that expand the state鈥檚 efforts to preserve 贬补飞补颈ʻ颈鈥檚 natural resources and foster sustainable tourism. While HB2248 focuses on 翱ʻ补丑耻鈥檚 North Shore, the bill serves as an important coastal management, adaptation planning, and community engagement model for coastal communities within and outside of Hawaiʻi struggling with sea-level rise and other coastal hazards.

“These bills represent significant steps forward in safeguarding 贬补飞补颈ʻ颈鈥檚 environment and promoting responsible tourism,” said Green.

Hawaiʻi Sea Grant will have 1.5 years to develop the recommendations for increased conservation of the beach and dune area. It will draw on similar community-based beach and dune management plans that it developed for Maui County, Kailua Beach Park on Oʻahu, Windward Oahu Tourism Assessment and the Hawaiʻi Dune Restoration Manual.

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—By Cindy Knapman

Scientists and kiaʻi loko (fishpond practitioners) have a new tool to aid their efforts to restore and ensure the resilience of Native Hawaiian fishponds. Researchers from the University of Hawaiʻi and fishpond stewards in Hilo, are using uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs), commonly known as drones, to support integrated coastal zone management, including at cultural heritage sites. The study was published in the .

“We discovered that drones are effective and cost-efficient tools for mapping loko iʻa at the community level, providing kiaʻi loko iʻa with better insights into the timing and locations of flooding and future sea level rise impacts on their fishponds,” said Kainalu Steward, lead author of the study and doctoral student in the 东精影业 Mānoa (SOEST).

Loko iʻa, traditional Hawaiian fishponds located along the coastline, have historically provided sustainable seafood sources. These culturally important sites are undergoing revitalization through community-driven restoration efforts. However, as sea-level rise poses a significant climate-induced threat to coastal areas, loko iʻa managers are seeking adaptive strategies to address related concerns such as flooding, water quality, and the viability of native fish species.

King Tides as estimate of future sea level

The researchers鈥� surveys determined that by 2060, the average sea level along the Keaukaha coastline in Hilo will be similar to the extreme tidal events, known as King Tides, during summer 2023. Steward and Brianna Ninomoto, a master鈥檚 student in at , devised a plan to investigate how future sea-level rise will affect loko iʻa by assessing the impacts of the summer 2023 King Tides.

Throughout the summer, including during the extreme high tide events, researchers collected drone imagery in real time and monitored water levels using sensors submerged at each loko iʻa. They compared flooding predicted from drone-derived topography models and more commonly used Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR)-derived models to the observed flooding documented by drone imagery.

The team found that digital elevation models derived from drone surveys accurately estimated observed flooding during extreme high tide events, whereas LiDAR flood models, which are nearly 20 years old for the Hilo region, significantly overestimated observed flooding by 2–5 times. Loko iʻa practitioners, however, reported that occasionally during severe weather and large swell events, these particular areas modeled from LiDAR data do flood. This suggests that data collected by LiDAR offers a more conservative and cautious understanding of coastal flooding, emphasizing that data collected by drone and LiDAR are important components when forecasting and managing the areas.

Supporting Native Hawaiian scientists, community

Funding for this research was awarded through NASA鈥檚 Minority University Research and Education Project (MUREP) for the project, “,” led by co-author and SOEST Assistant Professor of Earth Sciences Haunani Kane. The program engages underrepresented populations through a wide variety of initiatives. Multiyear grants are awarded to assist Minority Institution faculty and students in research related to pertinent missions.

“One of the goals of this project is to increase the capacity of Native Hawaiian students in assessing and evaluating impacts of sea level rise upon cultural resource sites,” said Kane. “This project supports five undergraduate students and three local Native Hawaiian students as they work towards obtaining their master鈥檚 and doctorate degrees in science at the University of Hawaiʻi.”

“This research is important for enhancing coastal community adaptation, resilience, and food security in the face of climate change,” said Ninomoto. “This work was ultimately done to support loko iʻa practitioners along Keaukaha and the future management of their ʻāina as the impacts of flooding become more severe.”

Another component of the NASA-funded project is storytelling and outreach to the community. John Burns, study co-author and 东精影业 Hilo associate professor in and , and the have a community lab space at Mokupāpapa Discovery Center in Downtown Hilo where the research team uses virtual reality and short films to share stories and engage the community in discussions of how climate change is impacting coastal resources in Hawaiʻi.

东精影业 researchers plan to continue working with the kiaʻi loko iʻa in Keaukaha, to provide up-to-date aerial imagery of their fishpond to support restoration efforts.

“Loko iʻa are examples of how our kūpuna have adapted to changes in climate for generations, and we want to contribute towards their resilience and perpetuation by integrating modern technology,” said Steward.

–By Marcie Grabowski

Climate change in Hawaiʻi and the Pacific Islands worsens inequities and threatens unique island ecosystems, cultural resources, human health, livelihoods, the built environment, and access to clean water and healthy food. These are among the findings of the U.S. National Climate Assessment, released by the Biden Administration which involved five University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa researchers. The assessment concluded that adaptation actions centered on local and Indigenous knowledge can improve the resilience of Pacific Island communities.

东精影业 Mānoa researchers involved in this work include: Haunani Kane, Gina Malia Nobrega, Kirsten Oleson, Chris Shuler, Richard Wallsgrove, Makena Coffman and several other 东精影业 affiliates, including Chapter Lead Abby Frazier.

The chapter on Hawaiʻi and the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands appears in the Fifth National Climate Assessment, the most up-to-date and comprehensive U.S. report to evaluate climate change risks, impacts and responses. The assessment demonstrates that efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and limit climate change impacts are underway in every U.S. region, including the Pacific Islands.

“Climate change continues to threaten things we care about,” said Frazier, a 东精影业 affiliate faculty member, an assistant professor at Clark University, and the chapter鈥檚 lead author. “As the devastating hurricane-fueled wildfires on Maui and Typhoon Mawar in Guam made clear, when communities are already hurting from stressors like COVID-19, extreme weather can multiply harms. The sooner we scale up global action to curb threats from climate change, the better. Fortunately, cutting emissions or preparing for new extremes also creates immediate local benefits—improved health, a stronger economy, and more resilient communities.”

The chapter鈥檚 key takeaways for the region include:

• Climate change impairs access to healthy food and water. Increasing temperatures, altered rainfall, flooding, pollution and fisheries decline will further affect food and water availability.
• Climate change undermines human health. Climate shocks and stressors compromise healthcare and worsen long-standing social and economic inequities that contribute to illness, but community strengths and adaptation measures can boost resilience.
• Rising sea levels harm infrastructure and islands鈥� economies. Sea-level rise intensifies loss of territory and disrupts livelihoods, however, governments and communities are innovating through renewable energy, green infrastructure and sustainable economic growth.
• Responses help to safeguard tropical ecosystems and biodiversity. Increased fire risk, severe droughts, and ocean changes have broad negative impacts on native plants and wildlife and ocean ecosystems. Effective adaptation strategies include ecosystem protection and restoration, invasive species measures and fire prevention.
• Indigenous Peoples and their knowledge systems are central to the resilience of island communities amidst the changing climate.

Since the Fourth National Climate Assessment, published in 2018, a new component is the chapter鈥檚 inclusion of a key message on human health and its emphasis on food security, integration of Indigenous knowledge, and recognition of data inequities for the Pacific Islands and U.S. Caribbean.

The full National Climate Assessment is published as an and .

Waikīkī is the economic hub of 贬补飞补颈ʻ颈鈥檚 tourism industry and is threatened by flooding from sea-level rise, king tides, groundwater inundation, overflow of the Ala Wai canal and more. In an effort to address these challenges, an interdisciplinary academic research team from the University of Hawaiʻi hosted a virtual interactive discussion in June with 220 people in attendance for Envisioning Sea Level Rise Adaptation Strategies for Waikīkī, Part III.

This marks the third public presentation of sea-level rise adaptation strategies for prototypical low-rise residential and high-rise residential and commercial buildings. The team depicted adaptation strategies in the years 2050 and 2100 for a beachfront study site at Fort Derussy U.S. Army Museum and Waikīkī Shore Condominium.

The renderings show potential flood adaptation options for coastal and open space areas, transportation, utilities and a high-rise mixed-use building.

“This project is a great opportunity to educate and inform the community of the future of our coasts, infrastructure and the environment,” said Gerry Failano, a 东精影业 Mānoa graduate research assistant. “Working with people from different backgrounds has taught me a great deal of the need to work together to address the effects of sea-level rise and climate change in Hawaiʻi and around the country.”

A mix of professionals and community members participated in the discussion, including government employees, urban planners, consultants, architects, Hawaiʻi residents, land and business owners, hotel and restaurant industry stakeholders, and those with cultural or historical interests.

“The diverse perspectives allowed for a dynamic environment to brainstorm innovative solutions for our collective future,” said Georgina Casey, a (SOEST) climate resilience specialist focusing on sea-level rise. “This project has allowed me to think critically about new possibilities and how we can envision a resilient future for Waikīkī.”

“I think this type of cross-disciplinary pollination of ideas has great potential to drive implementation forward for a more resilient Waikīkī,” said Eric Teeples, a doctor of architecture student.

Merging science, design

This research merges science with design to create conceptual architectural renderings to visualize sea-level rise adaptation strategies. The goal is to encourage discussion, contribute to design guides, pilot projects and new policies to prepare the community for future flooding.

“By prioritizing sustainable design and interdisciplinary research, this project contributes to a larger purpose of creating a resilient community and drives meaningful change,” said Josephine Briones, a climate change adaptation specialist.

“We are grateful for the participants鈥� feedback on each adaptation strategy as the renderings sparked conversation of prioritization, coordination, cost, and phasing,” said Wendy Meguro, the principal investigator for the project, and an associate professor with a joint appointment in the 东精影业 Mānoa School of Architecture and .

“Sea-level rise is an all-hands-on-deck issue that asks us to imagine our best futures, and work collaboratively to achieve them,” said Chip Fletcher, co-investigator and interim dean of SOEST. “The coastal cities of tomorrow will not look like the cities of today, now is the time to design, fund, and implement our dreams.”

Additional contributors include Desiree Malabed, a bachelor of environmental design student; rendering tutors Chris Lomboy and Andrew Tang; and design reviewers from Hawaiʻi Sea Grant, Melanie Lander, Dolan Eversole and Eileen Peppard. This research is a collaboration between the School of Architecture, Environmental Research and Design Laboratory; Hawaiʻi Sea Grant, Center for Smart Building and Community Design; SOEST, Climate Resilience Collaborative.

For more information, presentation slides, and recordings visit the . An updated project booklet and participant feedback report from the June 2023 webinar will also be available soon.

This research project is an example of 东精影业 Mānoa Strategic Plan goal to leverage our research strengths to lead the response to pressing issues facing the state and region in sustainability and resilience.

After holding two distinguished appointments University of Hawaiʻi at 惭腻苍辞补 Associate Professor Christina Gerhardt of the returns to 东精影业 to build on them.

A study conducted in the 2018–19 academic year by the 东精影业 Office of Sustainability found that students were concerned about the environment, climate change and sustainability. Gerhardt is working to address this concern through the Environmental Humanities.

The environmental humanities initiative was a winner in the Provost鈥檚 Strategic Investment Competition announced in February 2020. Together with colleagues Jaimey Hamilton Faris (Art) and Craig Santos Perez (English), Gerhardt co-designed the program鈥檚 first course, , which will be offered .

“东精影业 惭腻苍辞补 is already at the forefront of addressing climate change through initiatives such as the Institute for Sustainability and Resilience,” Gerhardt said. “I am humbled and honored to have been awarded these two distinguished appointments. They offered an important opportunity to see how other institutions bring together faculty and students in the environmental humanities. I am delighted to build on these experiences.”

Highlights of endowed professorship

Gerhardt was the Barron Visiting Professor of Environmental Humanities at Princeton University鈥檚 High Meadows Environmental Institute (January 2021 to May 2022), a Short-Term Fellow at the Newberry Library (June 2022) and a Senior Fellow at the Rachel Carson Center at the Ludwig Maximilian University in Munich, Germany (October to December 2022).

• Related 东精影业 News story: 东精影业 惭腻苍辞补 professor teaching sea-level rise, islander驶s poetry at Princeton, November 20, 2020

During her time at Princeton, Gerhardt explored the structure of the High Meadows Environmental Institute, which bridges and connects disciplines in environmental engineering, natural sciences, social sciences, public policy and environmental humanities. Last summer, Princeton published , which highlighted Gerhardt鈥檚 contributions.

Gerhardt also carried out a public humanities project, the High Water Line, which was featured in local media and on Princeton鈥檚 . Drawing on archival research, scientific studies and site specific scholarship, this civic engagement project consisted of a walking tour of Sayreville, New Jersey, a small town that was flooded by Hurricane Sandy in 2012 and where most residents accepted buyouts through New Jersey鈥檚 . Previously, Gerhardt carried out the .

During this time, she also covered the annual United Nations climate negotiations in 2021 for Sierra Magazine and The Nation and in 2022 for The Nation. She was interviewed on numerous radio stations, including on .

She was appointed Editor of ISLE: Interdisciplinary Studies in Literature and Environment, the international and interdisciplinary journal of the Association for the Study of Literature and Environment published quarterly by Oxford University Press.

At Princeton Professor Gerhardt also taught courses on the impacts of sea-level rise on island communities and on cities, combining the aforementioned fields and highlighting poetry of Pacific and Caribbean Islanders, in one course, and novels and creative nonfiction by U.S. writers in another course.

This teaching dovetails with the book Gerhardt completed while at Princeton, at the Newberry Library and at the Rachel Carson Center at the Ludwig Maximilian University. This book, Sea Change: An Atlas of Islands in a Rising Ocean, will be published by the University of California Press in May 2023. Sea Change is and was named one of the by New Scientist.

Waikīkī—the economic hub of 贬补飞补颈ʻ颈鈥檚 tourism industry—is threatened by flooding from sea-level rise, king tides, high wave events, rainfall and storm drain backflow, groundwater inundation and overflow of the Ala Wai Canal. University of Hawaiʻi research into this critical topic titled, “Envisioning Sea Level Rise Adaptation in Waikiki, Hawaiʻi,” received an honorable mention in the Unbuilt Project category at the 2022 Northwest and Pacific American Institute of Architects Honors and Design Awards in September.

Out of 100 projects entered by architects from Alaska, Washington, Oregon, Hawaiʻi, Idaho, Montana and the Marianas, 14 projects received recognition for design excellence that represents the finest standards in sustainability, innovation, building performance, and overall integration with client and surrounding community.

“Internationally, the United Nations sustainable development goals include taking ‘urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts’ because it affects all countries and disrupts national economies and lives,” said Wendy Meguro, the project leader and an associate professor with a joint appointment in the and (Hawaiʻi Sea Grant). “Locally, the Hawaiʻi Sea Level Rise Vulnerability and Adaptation Report estimates a potential future $19 billion loss of land and structures. The flood adaptation methods and strategies we are exploring for Waikīkī may influence local design guides and policy and may be replicated elsewhere.”

The interdisciplinary design research team includes graduate research assistants and faculty from the 东精影业 Mānoa in the School of Architecture, in Hawaiʻi Sea Grant, and Climate Resilience Collaborative in the .

Merging science and architecture

This research merges science with design to create conceptual architectural design renderings to visualize sea-level rise adaptation strategies over time for buildings, utilities, transportation and open space. The goals for these renderings are to compel discussion, contribute to design guides, pilot projects, and new policies that will prepare the community for future flooding. Feedback on adaptation strategies was solicited from more than 70 stakeholders and published as an online resource for future design teams and policy makers.

The awards jury considered design quality, functional utility, economy, environmental harmony, sustainability, accessibility, aesthetic delight, creativity, craftsmanship and innovation.

“I find this work to be very fulfilling, knowing that I am informing myself on issues like climate change impacts that will affect the future built environment and in extension, its occupants,” said Josephine Briones, who contributed to this research project as a Hawaiʻi Sea Grant fellow and continued after earning a doctor of architecture. “From the beginning, this project has aligned with my career interests for designing with sustainability as a priority, and has inspired me to learn more about how these impacts can be measured and influence change.”

Project collaborators include principal investigator Meguro; co-investigator Charles “Chip” Fletcher; graduate research assistants Briones and Ireland Castillo; outreach coordinators Eileen Peppard, Dolan Eversole, Melanie Lander; rendering tutors Chris Lomboy and Andrew Tang; and junior research assistants Aiko Tells and Desiree Malabed.

Funding was provided by Hawaiʻi Sea Grant鈥檚 Biennial Grant 2020–22 and the Office of Naval Research, Hawaiʻi Community Foundation and H.K.L. Castle Foundation.

The team continues to research and envision coastal resiliency, this time assessing adaptation options for a beach-front condominium site.

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The University of Hawaiʻi has partnered with MITRE, a not-for-profit operator of six federally funded research and development centers, to identify opportunities for collaborative analysis, engineering and research to advance marine technology, enhance cyber defense, strengthen climate resilience, address natural resource management and test new energy technologies.

MITRE will help connect 东精影业 technologies with federal agencies to help accelerate commercialization and move impact-driven 东精影业 innovations from the lab to the market.

“Partnering with MITRE provides a wonderful opportunity for 东精影业 to translate our world-class research into real-world solutions for the benefit of our state and beyond,” said Vassilis L. Syrmos, 东精影业 vice president for research and innovation. “We look forward to having access to MITRE鈥檚 impressive expertise and reach that will strengthen the 东精影业 research enterprise and help to grow our economic and knowledge-based sectors in Hawaiʻi.”

This partnership will explore the following opportunities:

• identifying aligned research and development projects
• sharing network connectivity and lab infrastructure
• supporting or establishing mentorship and internship programs at 东精影业 based on resources, opportunities and needs

MITRE and 东精影业 will also explore potential collaborative projects related to 东精影业 health initiatives, data and health analytics, coastal engineering and coastal infrastructure resilience, data science and cybersecurity, aerospace engineering and blue tech (ocean science and engineering).

As part of its national security work, MITRE operates the Department of Defense鈥檚 National Security Engineering Center. It helps military and intelligence organizations make wise investments in systems that work together, connect the innovation community to mission needs, and enable technology deployment to take military and civilian personnel out of harm鈥檚 way—all while keeping an eye on the horizon for the next global challenge.

“Our collaboration will maximize the capabilities of both MITRE and University of Hawaiʻi to positively impact the Indo-Pacific region and the safety of the world,” said Keoki Jackson, senior vice president, general manager, MITRE National Security. “I鈥檓 excited for what our two organizations can discover and innovate together.”

The partnership will be managed by the with support from its .

The social and cultural values of groundwater dependent ecosystems (GDEs) on the west coast of Hawaiʻi Island were described in a new article by University of Hawaiʻi at 惭腻苍辞补 researchers.

Through interviews with 19 lineal descendants and resource managers, researchers discovered that GDEs have deep social and cultural value, in part because of their historical significance as a major water source and important role in food production systems for Kona.

Researchers also learned about significant threats to GDEs, including invasive species, sea-level rise, nutrient pollution, over use, reduced groundwater flow and urban development. Some threats can be addressed at the individual manager level, while others require policy action at the state and county levels.

One K膩naka ʻ艑颈飞颈 lineal descendant said, “As with most of Hawaiʻi, our sacred and/or special places see more people, exposure, commodification and, at times, destruction. In today鈥檚 society of social media and Instagram celebrities, I see instances where people are willing to go to the extremes in order to ‘get the shot’ that will get them the most ‘likes’ even if they may not be aware of the negative impact they may be having on these places or people.”

Interviewees expressed visions of restoring GDEs for ecological and social functions, and emphasized that the restoration of cultural practice, well-being and identity is critical. They said managers continue to address the threats they have the most direct control over, for example, the presence of invasive guppies, but they also stressed the importance of shifting decision-making power to local resource managers and exploring models of community-based governance.

Interviewees also suggested limiting visitors to allow for “resting” of GDEs, and creating a fee system to fund docents for education and maintenance. To prepare for sea-level rise, others suggested allowing space for the creation of new GDEs inland.

“The Indigenous people of Kona have a long history of resilience and adaptation that is instrumental in successfully facing challenges in GDE management,” according to the researchers. “In the face of many interacting challenges, the Kona community is at the forefront of combining Indigenous knowledge and resource management practices with contemporary technology for GDE restoration. Supporting local resource managers, cultural practitioners and lineal descendants in achieving these goals through re-orienting governance and funding toward community-based management will be critical to the long-term ecological and social health of these important systems.”

The study鈥檚 authors are:

• Veronica Gibson, PhD candidate
• Leah Bremer, director of the Environmental Policy and Planning Group in the (东精影业ERO) and associate specialist
• Kimberly Burnett, 东精影业ERO associate director
• Celia Smith, School of Life Sciences professor
• Nicole Keakaonaaliʻi Lui, Hawaiʻi County Cultural Resource Commission and Hawaiʻi Community College graduate

东精影业ERO is located in 东精影业 惭腻苍辞补’s . For more information, see .

Indigenous coastal communities have depended on ocean resources over millennia, but climate change is creating a more unpredictable ocean by influencing waves, sea level, temperature and other factors, profoundly impacting remote coastal communities.

The (PacIOOS) within the University of Hawaiʻi at 惭腻苍辞补鈥檚 (SOEST) is collaborating with partners in the Pacific Islands, the Pacific Northwest and Alaska to improve access to ocean data for Indigenous coastal communities through a new project funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF) .

The goal of the project is to get oceanographic data into the hands of Indigenous communities in a way that takes advantage of existing, lower-cost wave buoy technology and enables sustained community-led stewardship of the buoys. Through co-design, the team aims to revolutionize the status quo by providing new tools and new connections that will provide critical safety information at a locally relevant scale.

“Wave data, for example, can help a local mariner determine whether it is safe to fish that day or travel to another island to deliver goods,” said Melissa Iwamoto, director of PacIOOS and co-principal on the NSF project. “Our partners and users are asking for more ocean information to enhance safety and improve decision-making, and many also want more autonomy in maintaining the instrumentation.”

Collaboration is key to developing solutions

Partners will collectively work to develop solutions to overcome existing hurdles of observing technologies that are too expensive to purchase and sustain when conducted in isolation. They include three regional systems of the U.S. Integrated Ocean Observing System (PacIOOS in Hawaiʻi and the U.S. Pacific Islands, in the northwest U.S. and in Alaska); , a low-cost buoy and sensor company; and Indigenous partners from the Pacific Islands (villages in the Marshall Islands and American Samoa via the and the ), Washington coast (Quileute Tribe and Quinault Indian Nation) and Alaska (11 whaling villages in the Arctic).

In the initial phase of the project, partners will work to assess coastal community needs and determine how existing lower-cost Sofar Ocean Spotter wave buoy and Smart Mooring technologies can address those needs. Working together, they will develop community-driven stewardship programs that can maintain the buoys into the future in partnership with the regional ocean observing systems, utilizing the strengths of the regional systems to serve data to remote communities in ways that work for them.

The collaboration embraces new, lower-cost technologies and utilizes the power of local ownership for maintaining ocean observations that are critical to serve the blue economy worldwide. The Indigenous communities in turn will provide feedback on the utility of the technologies, as well as offer input on ocean conditions from centuries of local observations. The co-designed approach is in line with the focus of NSF鈥檚 Convergence Accelerator: advancing use-inspired solutions into practical applications that address large-scale societal challenges.

“Increased access to ocean data is essential for coastal communities鈥� safety and livelihoods,” said Iwamoto. “We are excited by how this project will help us to quickly advance our goals to address our user needs through collaboration with new and existing partners across disciplines and geographies.”

In addition to providing localized data for coastal communities, the data will be available for large-scale scientific research to improve understanding and prediction of coastal dynamics, especially in a changing ocean.

This project is an example of 东精影业 惭腻苍辞补鈥檚 goal of (PDF), one of four goals identified in the (PDF), updated in December 2020.

This editorial by University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa Associate Dean Chip Fletcher was posted in .

Politics is the art of compromise, making it uniquely unsuited for establishing the future safety and well-being of our children. Compromise on safety? Who would ever agree to that? Our leaders, apparently.

In the lead-up to the UN climate summit COP26, U.S. Special Presidential Climate Envoy John Kerry said that the climate change summit in Glasgow would be the “last best hope for the world to get its act together.” Describing the threat of climate change as “existential,” Kerry signaled that the Biden administration understands the science of global warming and is committed to keep temperature increases below 1.5 degrees Celsius and adhere to the Paris Agreement. Hope was in the air.

As a participant at COP26, I watched the upbeat news about agreements on methane reductions, trillions of dollars in renewable energy investments, ending deforestation, an unexpected China-U.S. climate pact and more. Yet, in the end, despite the need for all these steps, the language behind these headlines was vague and even combined, are not capable of stopping warming at the planetary boundary of 1.5 degrees.

Today, air temps are 1.1 to 1.3 degrees above pre-industrial levels and will continue to increase until at least mid-century under all emissions scenarios. Global warming of 1.5 degrees and 2 degrees will be exceeded during the 21st century unless deep and rapid reductions in CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions occur soon. These reductions mean ending the use of coal, leaving oil and gas reserves in the ground, cutting emissions an average 7 percent every year beginning now, and achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 through a complete transformation of the energy, food, building, industrial and transportation sectors of the global economy.

By the time COP26 came to an end, Kerry鈥檚 language, and attitude, had changed. After two exhausting weeks of negotiation, his final remarks reflected the latest analysis: Government energy policies currently in place around the world are projected to result in about 2.7 degrees Celsius of warming above pre-industrial levels. Government pledges to cut emissions would limit warming to 2.4 degrees (that鈥檚 if they are met). According to the UN Environmental Program, based on current energy policies, we stand a two-thirds probability of warming 2.8 degrees by the end of the century.

But there is more to the story. We learned this year that our strongest natural ally in reducing emissions, photosynthesis by plants on land, may be faltering. On average, about 30 percent of annual CO2 emissions are removed from the air by this process with the remainder either dissolved in the ocean (causing ocean acidification) or remaining in the atmosphere for decades to millennia (causing global warming). Photosynthesis has a thermal maximum beyond which carbon uptake sharply declines and respiration, the process in which plants give off CO2 and water, sharply increases. Studies show this limit was already briefly passed in the warmest quarter of the past decade and with continued emissions (and warming), land-based carbon uptake is projected to decline by nearly 50 percent as early as 2040. This effect has not been included in published pathways to limiting warming to 1.5 degrees, nor in national pledges to cut emissions.

This is more than a speculative worry. The Amazon basin contains about half of the world’s tropical rainforests, which are more effective at soaking up and storing carbon than other types of forests. After decades of clear-cutting, wildfire, fragmentation and river damming, the Brazilian portion of the Amazon is no longer effective at storing carbon. It has become a net greenhouse gas emitter.

Tropical rainforests are critical to stopping global warming in line with UN targets. As these are lost, we may see other natural systems tip into new states as well. Exceeding the 1.5-degree limit threatens to produce dramatic increases in melting glaciers, thermally expanding oceans, disappearing Arctic Sea ice, coral reef bleaching, changes to key ocean currents, increasing extreme weather and wildfires, spreading forest loss, as well as other devastating impacts. And when we are finally successful at stopping global warming, should we begin the process of removing CO2 from the air, you cannot unmelt the Greenland ice sheet, and you cannot unburn the boreal forest. Setting in motion some of these global-scale biophysical changes may lead to irreversible tipping points in the climate system that could prove highly regretful.

Sounding irritable and defensive, like a man charged with defending an indefensible position, John Kerry encouraged us with “you can鈥檛 let the perfect be the enemy of the good.” Settle for “good” in an existential crisis?

If we let it, climate diplomacy will be a death sentence for over 19 percent of Earth鈥檚 land area. On our current emission pathway, the Marshall Islands, the Maldives, Kiribati and Tuvalu, Vietnam, SE Asia, the Middle East, North Africa, Central America—and about one-third of land humans occupy—are projected to either drown by sea-level rise or become too hot for human life before the end of this century.

Managing these futures by compromise is suicide. If to a hammer everything looks like a nail, then to a climate negotiator, must every COP climate conference treaty look like compromise?

The final text of the Glasgow Climate Pact commits the 197 parties to the Paris Agreement to “phase down” unabated coal power and “phase out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies.” This language is substantially weaker than expected because of a last-minute change required by India and China, the coal commitment was changed from “phase out” to “phase down.” The pact also commits countries to strengthen their 2030 emissions reductions targets by the end of 2022 and asks rich nations to “at least double” the amount of money they give developing countries for adapting to climate change.

India, China and other developing nations, are deeply engaged in improving human well-being through economic development and poverty eradication. Removing their ability to utilize ready and affordable fossil-fueled energy, threatens this important agenda. This is why climate change mitigation and achieving human equality must go hand in hand and is achieved by investing in the developing world. Deploying renewable energy across developing communities must happen at lightning speed and is, in fact, the best pathway to decarbonizing the global economy and stabilizing the climate for everyone. Investing in the developing world is an investment in ourselves and can be affordably achieved through green COVID-recovery stimulus plans.

Let鈥檚 set the record straight. Under current climate policy pledges, children born in 2020 will experience a two- to sevenfold increase in extreme events, particularly heat, compared with people born in 1960. Our world will heat up to a blistering 2.8 degrees Celsius by 2090 and for children born in 2020 versus those born decades earlier, they will experience 7.5 times as many heatwaves (4 versus 30 heat waves), 3.6 times as many droughts, 3 times as many crop failures, 2.8 times as many river floods and 2 times as many wildfires. These results highlight a severe threat to the safety of young generations and a call for drastic emission reductions to safeguard their future.

If we let it, climate politics, and the art of compromise, will bear responsibility for millions of deaths and untold suffering. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change must develop a better way forward for future COP summits—a way that places science in the lead, and the safety and wellbeing of humankind at the center, there is no time for compromise.

—Chip Fletcher is associate dean for Academic Affairs at the School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology at the University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa. He is the author of “Climate Change: What the Science Tells Us,” 2nd Edition, a textbook on climate change published by Wiley.

Sea-level rise and major weather events caused by climate change are expected to increasingly threaten coastal real estate properties around the world, including in Hawaiʻi. There is, however, growing evidence that U.S. homebuyers are taking the real estate impacts of climate change more seriously, according to a new (东精影业ERO) blog authored by Justin Tyndall, 东精影业ERO assistant professor and assistant professor of economics.

Tyndall used a complete data set of repeated home sales from Long Island, New York to estimate the lower price appreciation caused by the threat of sea-level rise. Between 2000 and 2017, Tyndall found properties that were between 0–2 meters from the current sea level had annual appreciation that was 1.3 percentage points less than the overall market.

Research also revealed evidence on how demand shifted within the market for coastal real estate. Tyndall discovered that homes near the coast, but at a higher elevation, performed better than the overall market, gaining 0.8 percentage points above average in annual appreciation. Tyndall said homebuyers interested in coastal real estate shifted their demand from high-risk to low-risk properties, pushing up the price of lower-risk coastal homes.

“As the consequences of climate change become more certain and less distant into the future, the impact on real estate markets will accelerate,” said Tyndall. “A significant share of properties in Hawaiʻi are exposed to sea-level rise and coastal erosion. A steady decline in the value of high-risk real estate helps to soften the risk of sudden, calamitous losses for coastal property owners. Nevertheless, the future consequences of climate change represent an enormous financial loss to real estate markets and a reorientation of how coastal property is developed and managed.”

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东精影业ERO is housed in 东精影业 惭腻苍辞补鈥檚 .

This work is an example of 东精影业 惭腻苍辞补鈥檚 goal of (PDF), one of four goals identified in the (PDF), updated in December 2020.