{"id":212970,"date":"2025-03-31T08:09:31","date_gmt":"2025-03-31T18:09:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/?p=212970"},"modified":"2025-04-03T13:09:14","modified_gmt":"2025-04-03T23:09:14","slug":"maui-tvr-phaseout","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/2025\/03\/31\/maui-tvr-phaseout\/","title":{"rendered":"Maui transient vacation rental phaseout\u2014more housing, fewer jobs"},"content":{"rendered":"<span class=\"span-reading-time rt-reading-time\" style=\"display: block;\"><span class=\"rt-label rt-prefix\">Reading time: <\/span> <span class=\"rt-time\"> 2<\/span> <span class=\"rt-label rt-postfix\">minutes<\/span><\/span><p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/manoa-uhero-vacation-rental-bill.jpg\" alt=\"land with homes and a large ocean\" width=\"676\" height=\"381\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-199979\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/manoa-uhero-vacation-rental-bill.jpg 676w, https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/manoa-uhero-vacation-rental-bill-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/manoa-uhero-vacation-rental-bill-130x73.jpg 130w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 676px) 100vw, 676px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>A new report from the <a href=\"https:\/\/uhero.hawaii.edu\/\">University of <span aria-label=\"Hawaii\">Hawai&#699;i<\/span> Economic Research Organization<\/a> (<abbr>东精影业ERO<\/abbr>), commissioned by the <span aria-label=\"Hawaii\">Hawai&#699;i<\/span> Community Foundation, examines the economic implications of a proposal to phase out transient vacation rentals (<abbr>TVRs<\/abbr>) in Maui County\u2019s Apartment zoning districts. The proposal, which would eliminate long-standing exceptions for pre-1989 properties known as the &ldquo;Minatoya List,&rdquo; aims to address Maui\u2019s worsening housing crisis by converting short-term rentals into long-term housing.<\/p>\n<p>The report estimates that phasing out these units could increase Maui\u2019s long-term housing stock by up to 6,127 units, which is equivalent to 10 years of new construction at the current rate. However, the policy could also reduce visitor spending by nearly $900 million annually, resulting in job and income losses, declining property values and an estimated $60 million drop in county property tax revenues by 2029.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/uhero.hawaii.edu\/an-economic-analysis-of-the-proposal-to-phase-out-transient-vacation-rentals-in-maui-county-apartment-districts\/\">See the full report<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&ldquo;This is a substantial policy intervention with wide-ranging implications for Maui\u2019s economy,&rdquo; said <abbr>东精影业ERO<\/abbr> Executive Director Carl Bonham. &ldquo;Our analysis shows that while the proposal could contribute to housing affordability, the resulting contraction in jobs, income and county revenues presents real tradeoffs that warrant careful consideration.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<h2>Key findings<\/h2>\n<p><strong>Visitor industry impact<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Eliminating all <abbr>TVRs<\/abbr> in Apartment zones could reduce visitor accommodations by 25&#37; and visitor days by 32&#37;.<\/li>\n<li>Total visitor spending is projected to decline by $900 million annually (-15&#37;).<\/li>\n<li>The decline in spending also results in the loss of 1,900 jobs (-3&#37; of total payroll jobs).<\/li>\n<li>Real <abbr title=\"Gross Domestic Produce\">GDP<\/abbr> could therefore decline by 4&#37;.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Housing market impact<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The policy could add up to 6,127 units to the long-term housing stock&#8212;a 13&#37; increase, equivalent to a decade\u2019s worth of new housing development.<\/li>\n<li>Condo prices are projected to decline by 20&#8211;40&#37;, improving affordability but also reducing household wealth and property tax revenues.<\/li>\n<li>Affected <abbr>TVRs<\/abbr> are disproportionately owned by out-of-state investors (85&#37;), but market-wide price declines also impact owner-occupants.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Tax revenue impact<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Property tax revenues could fall by up to $60 million annually by 2029 due to both changes in tax class and decreasing valuations.<\/li>\n<li>General Excise Tax (<abbr>GET<\/abbr>) and Transient Accommodations Tax (<abbr>TAT<\/abbr>) revenues are projected to fall by 10&#37; and 8&#37; respectively, totaling to an additional -$15 million annually.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Policy alternatives and adjustments<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The report also explores alternatives to a full ban, including:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Raising property tax rates on <abbr>TVRs<\/abbr> to encourage voluntary conversions and generate revenue.<\/li>\n<li>Auctioning a limited number of <abbr>TVR<\/abbr> permits to capture value for public use from the most profitable units.<\/li>\n<li>Gradual phase-out to reduce the risk of housing market shocks.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Complementary policies could further support housing availability, including an empty homes tax, zoning and permitting reforms, and expanded homeownership assistance.<\/p>\n<p>For the full report, <a href=\"https:\/\/uhero.hawaii.edu\/an-economic-analysis-of-the-proposal-to-phase-out-transient-vacation-rentals-in-maui-county-apartment-districts\/\">visit <abbr>东精影业ERO<\/abbr>\u2019s website<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><abbr>东精影业ERO<\/abbr> is housed in <abbr title=\"东精影业\">东精影业<\/abbr> M\u0101noa\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/socialsciences.manoa.hawaii.edu\/\">College of Social Sciences<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>See this <a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/Tmna-eY-n58?si=YC0WoOPnbhLh4UAQ\"><abbr>东精影业ERO<\/abbr> Focus video<\/a> for more.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The report estimates that phasing out these units could increase Maui\u2019s long-term housing stock by up to 6,127 units, which is equivalent to 10 years of new construction at the current rate.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[30],"tags":[301,197,1467,1363,1600,1026,9,343],"class_list":["post-212970","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-research","tag-college-of-social-sciences","tag-economics","tag-manoa-excellence-in-research","tag-manoa-research","tag-public-impact-research","tag-social-science","tag-uh-manoa","tag-uhero","entry","has-media"],"aioseo_notices":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/212970","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=212970"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/212970\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":212974,"href":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/212970\/revisions\/212974"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=212970"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=212970"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=212970"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}