{"id":91396,"date":"2019-03-01T08:17:15","date_gmt":"2019-03-01T18:17:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/?p=91396"},"modified":"2019-03-05T15:49:00","modified_gmt":"2019-03-06T01:49:00","slug":"uhero-state-forecast-update-2019","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/2019\/03\/01\/uhero-state-forecast-update-2019\/","title":{"rendered":"<abbr title=\"东精影业 Economic Research Organization\">东精影业ERO<\/abbr> state forecast update: Economy slows markedly. Is more in store?"},"content":{"rendered":"<span class=\"span-reading-time rt-reading-time\" style=\"display: block;\"><span class=\"rt-label rt-prefix\">Reading time: <\/span> <span class=\"rt-time\"> &lt; 1<\/span> <span class=\"rt-label rt-postfix\">minute<\/span><\/span><p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/manoa-uhero-report.jpg\" alt=\"landscape of Honolulu harbor\" width=\"620\" height=\"159\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-43334\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/manoa-uhero-report.jpg 620w, https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/manoa-uhero-report-260x67.jpg 260w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 620px) 100vw, 620px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The newest <a href=\"http:\/\/uhero.hawaii.edu\/\">University of <span aria-label=\"Hawaii\">Hawai&#699;i<\/span> Economic Research Organization<\/a> (<abbr>东精影业ERO<\/abbr>) report focuses on the impact of the federal tax cuts on <span aria-label=\"Hawaii\">Hawai&#699;i<\/span>\u2019s economy.<\/p>\n<p><abbr>东精影业ERO<\/abbr> reports that <span aria-label=\"Hawaii\">Hawai&#699;i<\/span>\u2019s economy ended 2018 on a poorer footing than 2017. Across a number of dimensions, the year saw a flattening out or outright decline in activity. Tourism challenges were not limited to the aftermath of flood and fire, but also reflected weakening in some key markets and a falloff in spending. At home, population growth has been negative for the past two years, weighing on demand. Deceleration is now well established in the islands, posing significant downside risks to our forecast of continuing modest growth.<\/p>\n<h2>Report highlights<\/h2>\n<p><strong>The U.S. and world slide lower<\/strong><br \/>\nSince the <abbr>东精影业ERO<\/abbr> fourth quarter report, external conditions facing <span aria-label=\"Hawaii\">Hawai&#699;i<\/span> have worsened measurably<\/p>\n<p><strong>And tourism turns<\/strong><br \/>\nWith some month-to-month fluctuations, the number of visitor arrivals to <span aria-label=\"Hawaii\">Hawai&#699;i<\/span> has been essentially flat since April, on a seasonally adjusted basis.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The labor market cools a bit<\/strong><br \/>\nAfter touching 2 percent in May, a record low, the unemployment rate edged up to 2.5 percent in December as employment receded a bit from midyear on.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Construction holds together<\/strong><br \/>\nConstruction employment stabilized last year, after edging downward in 2016&#8211;2017. <\/p>\n<p><strong>Not so steady on?<\/strong><br \/>\nThe fourth-quarter Annual <span aria-label=\"Hawaii\">Hawai&#699;i<\/span> Forecast looked ahead to a gradual moderation of the business cycle expansion. This report takes a more downbeat view of economic prospects. <\/p>\n<p>For the full <a href=\"https:\/\/uhero.hawaii.edu\/products\/view\/617\">public summary go to the University of <span aria-label=\"Hawaii\">Hawai&#699;i<\/span> Economic Research Organization website<\/a> and for a detailed analysis, subscribe to <a href=\"http:\/\/uhero.hawaii.edu\/72\/subscription-form\"><abbr>东精影业ERO<\/abbr>&#8217;s Forecast Project<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p><span aria-label=\"Hawaii\">Hawai&#699;i<\/span>\u2019s economy ended 2018 on a poorer footing than 2017, and across a number of dimensions, the year saw a flattening out or outright decline in activity.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[30],"tags":[301,197,1363,9,343],"class_list":["post-91396","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-research","tag-college-of-social-sciences","tag-economics","tag-manoa-research","tag-uh-manoa","tag-uhero","entry","has-media"],"aioseo_notices":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/91396","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=91396"}],"version-history":[{"count":9,"href":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/91396\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":91708,"href":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/91396\/revisions\/91708"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=91396"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=91396"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=91396"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}